Where is the CJNG in Mexico?

With Mexican elections nigh, the CJNG is the leading cause of political violence. World of Crime breaks down its presence, state by state, across the country.

Since the CJNG roared onto Mexico’s criminal scene over a decade ago, it has been blamed for soaring violence in every part of the country. Much of this blame is deserved. Like the Zetas before it, the CJNG is in a perpetual expansion mode, picking fights with small local gangs and nationally present cartels alike.

But the truth behind reports of CJNG violence can vary. It is difficult to determine precise patterns or plan security operations based on looking at these incidents. The CJNG produces a high volume of narco-banners and videos across Mexico, all announcing its next moves. These, in turn, lead to a vast quantity of media articles and policy reports, which muddy the waters as to what the CJNG may be planning.

Major expansions can be accompanied by a more sustained and targeted messaging campaign. Take the CJNG’s brutal incursion into Zacatecas in 2020.

On April 12, 2020, identical banners were hung up in 17 different municipalities in the state. All bore the same message: “From today, the state of Zacatecas is represented by the CJNG. We are already here, the kidnappings, extortion and shakedowns are over. We guarantee security and respect to the citizens of Zacatecas.”

They didn’t keep their promise. From November 2020 to November 2021, homicides in Zacatecas rose by 52% as the CJNG expanded rapidly in the state, seeking to control drug routes and secure ideal locations for fentanyl labs.

Since late 2022, CJNG videos and banners have appeared more frequently in Aguascalientes, Morelos, Oaxaca and Puebla. In Morelos, a video saw CJNG troops announce that Mencho now “owned” the state. In Aguascalientes, allegedly corrupt officials were named, shamed and threatened by banners stating “we’re coming for you all.”

None of these states have been important CJNG battlegrounds in recent years. Such a focus could reveal a potential CJNG aim to expand into new territory.

There is a recent precedent here. The southern state of Chiapas has become one of Mexico’s principal criminal battleground states since 2022 after the CJNG moved in to contest migrant smuggling, extortion, and drug trafficking opportunities controlled by the Sinaloa Cartel.

In order to provide some clarity, World of Crime presents a breakdown of the CJNG’s presence in every Mexican state.

This article is part of World of Crime’s new book, “CJNG - A Guide to Mexico’s Deadliest Cartel,” a complete breakdown of the CJNG’s multi-faceted criminal economies in Mexico, the United States and beyond. Available on Amazon at 50% off until end of May.

Aguascalientes: Strong presence

With a strategic location in central Mexico and close to the CJNG’s heartland in Jalisco and Nayarit, it is surprising that Aguascalientes avoided being a major cartel battleground throughout most of the 2010s.

The Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG have made tentative forays into Aguascalientes, but without fully committing to the state. In 2017 and 2018, for example, state authorities were on high alert as both cartels announced their expansion in Aguascalientes with banners. Murder rates rose rapidly, but this was attributed to the state being next to Jalisco and Zacatecas. The state's attorney general stated “large cartel structures don’t exist” in the state.

This has not proven to be true. In 2020, violence gradually became more pronounced after CJNG banners announced a war against elements from the Sinaloa Cartel and the Talibanes, a Zeta offshoot. But again, no gang gained a dominant presence. 

Since 2022, Aguascalientes’ status as a battleground state can no longer be denied. Homicides rose by close to 20% and the state finished the year as the 11th most murderous state in the country. The CJNG’s sense of ownership was in no doubt. In September 2022, the CJNG posted a video online. It showed the cartel’s logo inside a map of Aguascalientes and showed armed men vowing to clean the state of rival gangs and corrupt officials.

A new narcocorrido song entitled, Que empiece el juego (Let the game begin), all about the CJNG’s moves in Aguascalientes was even published on YouTube in February 2024.

Aguascalientes is an important waypoint for drugs heading to the United States. The CJNG, the Sinaloa Cartel, and the Talibanes, a Zeta splinter group, are all fighting to control access to a network of highways that connects the small state to Mexico City and Guadalajara.

Their sustained interest in Aguascalientes may also be connected to fentanyl, which is crossing the state with increasing frequency. Despite state authorities denying that fentanyl is a problem in Aguascalientes, numerous seizures and dozens of overdoses in the last few years paint a different picture.

Most notably, an operator for Los Mezcales, a smaller criminal group from Colima, was arrested in Aguascalientes in September 2022 carrying thousands of fentanyl pills. He allegedly was seeking to expand Los Mezcales’ sphere of influence to Aguascalientes, according to the Defence Ministry.

Baja California: Strong presence

The state of Baja California, especially the city of Tijuana, is one of the main smuggling points for drugs entering the US. Since the late 2010s, it has been a focal point for the CJNG-Sinaloa Cartel war taking place across Mexico, which has made Tijuana one of the deadliest cities in the world. Tijuana saw around 1,800 murders in 2023, down from over 2,200 in 2022.

Mencho has a longstanding relationship with the state, as he repeatedly crossed the border there in the 1980s and 1990s when he was selling marijuana and meth in San Francisco.

To break the Sinaloa Cartel’s dominance there, the CJNG struck a deal with remnants of the Arellano-Felix family, once-powerful drug lords who ran the Tijuana Cartel. In 2016, narcobanners declared the birth of the Tijuana Cartel New Generation (CTNG). 

In spite of this declaration, the CJNG has struggled to maintain permanent alliances in Baja California. The CTNG does not appear to have been active for a long time, as scant mention has been made of this alliance since. The Cabos, a smaller gang in Baja California, were also allied with Mencho until a brutal separation in 2019.

In 2024, both the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG continue to fight viciously for control of Baja California’s border crossings, especially through the port of San Ysidro, which connects Tijuana and San Diego and sees millions of fentanyl pills smuggled into the US every year.

Similar to other perpetual battlegrounds in Mexico, it is likely that Tijuana simply has too many criminal elements involved for any single actor to take over for long.

Baja California Sur: Moderate presence

Historically, Baja California Sur (BCS), best known for its tourist hotspot of Los Cabos, has had low violence rates. Located across the Gulf of California from the state of Sinaloa, it has been dominated by El Chapo’s Sinaloa Cartel for much of the last two decades. The group’s monopoly over drug trafficking in BCS helped the violence stay down. But analysts stated the Sinaloa Cartel relied on a horizontal partnership with local groups, rather than strong top-down leadership in BCS.

In 2016, perhaps motivated by El Chapo’s extradition arrest, the CJNG moved in. BCS became a battleground state for the Sinaloa Cartel-CJNG war, with homicides soaring from 177 in 2015 to 788 in 2017.

But in the years since, this petered out rapidly. Just 23 homicides were registered in BCS in 2023, with several months seeing no murders at all. With BCS among the most peaceful states in the country, it seems the CJNG maintains a small presence there, especially in Los Cabos, but does not see the state as a strategic priority. 

Campeche: Moderate presence

The CJNG has been linked to isolated instances of violence in the state of Campeche, according to police records. The state’s location on the Gulf of Mexico and next to Guatemala could make it a desirable location for drug trafficking, migrant smuggling and contraband. But for the most part, it has avoided the worst of Mexico’s violence.

Four people were killed in a shootout in Campeche in January 2023, but while media reports blamed this on the CJNG and the Chapitos, no evidence of this has been provided. The CJNG has also been connected to illegal cigarettes partially produced in Campeche.

In contrast, Campeche’s neighbouring state, Chiapas, saw a severe escalation in violence in 2022 and 2023 as the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG battled tooth and nail for control of criminal economies along the Guatemala border. Campeche could suffer from an overspill of this ongoing violence.

Interestingly, Campeche also has an almost unique criminal economy in Mexico: piracy. The state and its neighbour Tabasco are hubs for the offshore oil and gas industry, with hundreds of oil platforms off its coast. Hundreds of attacks on oil platforms and ships have been registered, with well-informed and armed thieves stealing fuel, pumps, breathing equipment, and other items. 

Chiapas: Strong presence

Over 780,000 people entered Mexico as unauthorized migrants in 2023. Those crossing the Guatemalan border into the southern state of Chiapas risked stumbling into one of Mexico’s latest hubs of violence.

Since 2022, parts of Chiapas have become a battleground as the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel clash to control several lucrative criminal economies. These include drugs smuggled over land from Central America or arriving by sea onto the coast of Chiapas. The record flow of migrants through Chiapas also provides cartels like the CJNG with opportunities for extortion, kidnapping and forced recruitment.  

The CJNG developed its presence in Chiapas and Guatemala simultaneously, as it emerged in 2021 that the group had been quietly expanding its network of drug trafficking contacts in the Central American country for several years.

Since 2022, violence with the Sinaloa Cartel has displaced thousands in Chiapas, especially around the border town of Frontera Comalapa. Thousands of residents have been temporarily displaced and the CJNG has been largely blamed by locals for ramping up the violence, according to crime reporter Ioan Grillo. A group of civilians recruited into the CJNG has allegedly been helping the cartel take over local criminal economies and calling themselves Maiz, short for Mano Izquierda (Left Hand).

Not all of these recent recruits may be aiding the cartel willingly, as residents fleeing the violence have also reported that the CJNG had increased the forced recruitment of locals to fuel their battles against the Sinaloa Cartel.

The war in Chiapas may indicate a worrying long-term trend in Mexico: the factors that have driven violence at its northern border for decades are being replicated on its southern frontier.

Chihuahua: Strong presence

As one of Mexico’s most strategic drug trafficking hubs, boasting highly coveted border crossings with the US like Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua is consistently one of the country’s most violent states. 

The CJNG has maintained a constant presence in Chihuahua, but its power in the state has largely relied on an alliance with La Linea, a powerful local force that controls much of the drug flow entering the US between Ciudad Juarez and El Paso. La Linea and the CJNG first united around 2017  and appear to have battled groups connected to the Sinaloa Cartel ever since. Further south, CJNG operations have been reported inconsistently in cities such as the state capital, Chihuahua, and Parral. 

Coahuila: Moderate presence

Coahuila is a highly desirable slice of criminal real estate, with hundreds of kilometres of a desert border with Texas. However, the CJNG has only had limited success in entering a state far away from its power bases. Coahuila also counts on a heavy presence by the Sinaloa Cartel, the Northeast Cartel and well-armed police squads, which have been frequently accused of moonlighting as drug traffickers.

The CJNG has made announcements about its presence in Coahuila but does not appear to have succeeded in creating a foothold in the state. 

Colima: Dominant presence

Outside of Jalisco and Michoacán, Colima is the state where the CJNG and its Milenio ancestors have the longest history. The port of Manzanillo is Mexico’s largest and has been used for decades as an entry point for fentanyl and chemical precursors used to make methamphetamine and fentanyl.

The CJNG’s control of the port is regularly challenged, making Colima a hotbed of violence. In 2016, the CJNG defended itself against incursions by the Sinaloa Cartel and the Zetas. And while the Zetas have faded, the Sinaloa Cartel continues to challenge Manzanillo. In 2022, the Mezcales, a smaller Colima-based gang, turned on the CJNG, claiming Mencho was dead. This led to a brief outbreak of violence until the Mezcales leader was arrested.

Durango: Moderate presence

Durango is one of the only states in the country where the CJNG has not been reported to have much of a presence.

The northern reaches of Durango are part of the Golden Triangle, one of Mexico’s principal production areas for marijuana and opium poppy. Durango is one of the Sinaloa Cartel’s main bastions and would be a tough nut for the CJNG to crack. But with the two groups fighting each other in Zacatecas just to the south, an extension of that violence to Durango is not out of the question. 

Guanajuato: Dominant presence

Since 2018, the industrial state of Guanajuato has seen more murders than any other Mexican state. Its cities such as Irapuato, Celaya, and León are listed as among the most dangerous in the world. But why?

The CJNG targeted Guanajuato early in its expansion across Mexico. Containing the vast Salamanca refinery, Guanajuato is a centre for fuel theft from pipelines, known as huachicoleo, which is a major criminal economy. Furthermore, Guanajuato has courted international automotive investments. Its business landscape has made it an ideal location for criminal gangs to ramp up local drug sales and extortion.

In 2018, the CJNG made a renewed push to control oil theft in the state and ran up against an alliance of local gangs specialized in fuel theft, known as the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel. For a brief time, this became the most violent criminal feud in the country.

Since the capture of the Santa Rosa de Lima’s leader, known as El Marro, in 2020, the alliance has dwindled but remains a threat.

In 2022, the Sinaloa Cartel made a push into the south of the state, opening up yet another front against its old rival. Guanajuato also has the grim record of being the most dangerous state in Mexico for police, with over 300 officers killed between 2019 and 2023.

Guerrero: Strong presence

The state of Guerrero provides perhaps Mexico’s most complicated criminal panorama. According to the Crisis Group, a patchwork of over 40 criminal groups, large and small, fight for control of marijuana and opium poppy production, heroin trafficking, extortion, illegal mining, illegal logging and cocaine and chemical precursors entering through the Pacific Coast near Acapulco.

Larger gangs have fragmented into smaller outfits, fighting brutally for a slice of this criminal buffet. Community self-defence groups have popped up, but many have entered criminal activities.

The CJNG has played its part in all this. In 2019, it entered northern Guerrero and rapidly faced off against a collection of rivals in a conflict that spilt over from neighbouring Michoacán. Since 2022, a flip-flopping relationship between the CJNG and La Familia Michoacana has seen the gangs fight, then make peace, and potentially fight again.

In 2023 and early 2024, the main conflict appeared to be between La Familia Michoacana, and local groups, Los Tlacos and Los Ardillos. The complexity of Guerrero’s criminal dynamics and entrenched local groups make it unlikely the CJNG will be able to dominate the state.

Hidalgo: Strong presence

Hidalgo is usually one of Mexico’s quieter criminal states. It is home to extensive theft from gasoline and liquid petroleum gas pipelines connected to the refinery complex at Tula but its homicide rate has remained comparatively low.

In December 2022, a CJNG faction known as Grupo Pantera released a video announcing their arrival to Hidalgo on orders of Mencho. Since then, government officials in the state have acknowledged that CJNG is present, especially in towns with oil pipelines. While violence has not flared up in Hidalgo so far, there is potential for conflict between the CJNG and local gangs such as Los Hades, especially as the state has become the epicentre of fuel theft in the country.

Jalisco: Dominant presence

The CJNG has a curious relationship with Jalisco. It became the group’s “home state” out of convenience as that was where a power vacuum presented itself after the death of Sinaloa Cartel chieftain, Ignacio Coronel, in 2010. Mencho initially agreed to run the state under the supervision of the Sinaloa Cartel, although that pact did not hold for long.

The CJNG controls the interior rural parts of the state, including areas near the border with Colima where Mencho is believed to commonly reside. But in the capital, Guadalajara, and around the fringes of the state, it faces several conflicts.

In Guadalajara, it faces low-level but regular interference from Nueva Plaza, one of the first examples of fragmentation within the CJNG. A group of aggrieved lieutenants struck out on their own in 2017 and allegedly received support from the Sinaloa Cartel, although Nueva Plaza has never been a real threat to the CJNG. The Sinaloa Cartel has made incursions into northern Jalisco, and the Cárteles Unidos have operated in several communities in southern Jalisco, seemingly to block CJNG access routes into Michoacán.

Puerto Vallarta, one of Mexico’s most popular tourist destinations, is also an important base for the CJNG where it launders money through hotels and other businesses and engages in timeshare fraud.

Mexico City: Strong presence

Analyzing organized crime in Mexico City is always a curiosity. The CJNG, as well as the Sinaloa Cartel, is regularly connected to criminal events in the capital but in a limited fashion. In 2020, the group was linked to a series of attacks against La Unión Tepito, one of the strongest home-grown Mexico City gangs. But the CJNG was allegedly arming rivals of La Unión Tepito rather than intervening directly.

Yet, the CJNG has carried out spectacular attacks of its own in the city. In 2020, the cartel tried to assassinate Mexico City’s public security secretary, Omar García Harfuch, firing hundreds of bullets at his car as it passed along one of the capital’s main thoroughfares. Harfuch was hit three times but survived. Two police officers and a passer-by were killed.

In late 2023 and early 2024, the CJNG was connected to violent incidents in the neighbourhoods of Iztapalapa and Tlalpan. An extortionist group, allegedly connected to the CJNG, was also reported to have taken over the shaking down of merchants in Central de Abastos in the capital, the largest wholesale market in the world.

These incidents are likely to remain the norm. While most of Mexico’s major cartels have a presence in the capital, the sheer size, the number of criminal opportunities and the participation of localized gangs make it a tricky position for the CJNG to take over Mexico City. 

Michoacán: Strong presence

The CJNG has thrown money, munitions and men at the perpetual battleground state of Michoacán for years, yet has never come close to taming it.

There is a strong sense of ownership for many old hands among the CJNG to reclaim Michoacán. In the avocado-growing communities around Aguililla and Uruapan, the Valencia family formed the Milenio Cartel, which would grow to become the CJNG. Mencho himself was born near Aguililla and the CJNG has fought hard to reclaim it.

Beyond territorial loyalty, Michoacán presents a unique criminal opportunity: the systematic and ruinous extortion of avocado growers, whose produce fetches a kingly price in the US.

But it has run into dogged opposition from a long roster of opponents. Driven out of Michoacán by the Zetas in the mid-2000s, the Valencias have tried to take it back regularly. The original thorn in their side was La Familia Michoacana (LFM), a group of allies turned rivals. After LFM weakened in 2011, a faction known as the Knights Templar arose. Their war with the CJNG dominated Michoacán until around 2016. Since 2017, the CJNG has faced strong opposition from Cárteles Unidos (CU), an alliance made up of local gangs, Los Viagras and Cartel del Abuelo, remnants of the Knights Templar and self-defense groups. 

The Mexican army has sought to pacify the deadliest areas of Michoacán, including Aguililla occasionally, but troops regularly come under attack.

Michoacán has been Mexico’s most untamable frontier for decades. Since the birth of the Milenio Cartel, a rotating roster of criminal groups from the Zetas to the Familia Michoacana to the CJNG have fought to control it. There is little indication any winner will emerge in the near future.

Morelos: Strong presence

The small southern state of Morelos is in the unenviable position of being on a large drug trafficking route between Mexico City and Guerrero, a historic cultivation spot for opium poppy and an entry point for cocaine and chemical precursors for the production of meth along the Pacific coast. As the demand for heroin has collapsed with the rise of fentanyl, groups have changed tactics, moving increasingly into extortion. La Familia Michoacana has been present in much of Morelos, but the CJNG declared in 2023 that they would be paying more attention to the state to allegedly stop extortion.

Morelos closed 2023 with a historically high number of murders. 

Nayarit: Strong presence

A popular tourist destination nestled on the Pacific coast and sandwiched between the states of Sinaloa and Jalisco, Nayarit has been a playground for Mexico’s two largest cartels, although neither has been able to completely control it. The state is infamous for having a series of highly corrupt politicians, including some with very close financial ties to the CJNG.

In 2017, the CJNG fought a brutal campaign against remnants of the Beltrán-Leyva Organization in Nayarit. Their goal to expand into the state was allegedly supported by then-governor Roberto Sandoval and his attorney general, Edgar Veytia. Both Sandoval and Veytia were later arrested and charged in part for a range of criminal connections to the CJNG, including bribery, drug trafficking and money laundering.

However, the CJNG’s push into the state was not entirely successful. The group mostly projects its power in the south of Nayarit, which is close to the CJNG’s base in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco. The CJNG has been connected to timeshare fraud, a scam where owners of timeshare apartments are contacted by false buyers, convinced to accept an offer, and then pay some fees to close the deal, after which the buyers disappear.

Nuevo León: Strong presence

Containing Mexico’s second-largest city of Monterrey and close to the US border, Nuevo León is one of the wealthiest states in the country. Its criminal fate has most often been tied to the neighbouring state of Tamaulipas, a major drug trafficking hub controlled by the Gulf Cartel and the Northeast Cartel. The latter in particular has expanded strongly into Nuevo León in the last decade, ramping up killings of rivals and police officers.

While the CJNG is not a dominant player in Nuevo León, it has ramped up incursions into the state. In 2024, narco-banners declaring the arrival of the CJNG were spotted in towns west of Monterrey.

Its push into this criminally crowded state has allegedly been supported by an alliance with the Metros, a breakaway faction of the Gulf Cartel.

Nonetheless, drug trafficking dynamics in Nuevo León remain highly fluid and can change rapidly amid shifting alliances and enmities.

Oaxaca: Moderate presence

The CJNG has had a persistent but quiet presence in Oaxaca for years, at least compared to its activities in certain other states. Since at least 2017, CJNG narco-banners have appeared in parts of the state, vowing to clean up extortionists, thieves and kidnappers. In January 2023, a video message was published by CJNG gunmen, vowing to take large parts of Oaxaca, including the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

The Isthmus, referring to the narrowest point in Mexico between the Gulf of Mexico on one side and the Pacific on the other, is valuable criminal real estate. It is an ideal corridor for drug trafficking as well as migrant smuggling, with the Oaxacan coast a popular destination for smugglers to leave those seeking to make their way to the US.

Oaxaca is a complex state for the CJNG to navigate, with a high number of local gangs who defend small turfs, a diverse network of indigenous groups, and the presence of rivals like the Sinaloa Cartel. As of early 2024, both groups are involved in a violent feud in neighbouring Chiapas, and there is a risk the fighting could spill over into Oaxaca.

Puebla: Strong Presence

Puebla presents many attractive qualities for an enterprising cartel. It has an extensive pipeline network filled with oil and natural gas, making it one of the most prominent states in Mexico for fuel theft. Violence connected to the CJNG in Puebla’s Red Triangle, an area containing a large network of oil and gas pipelines in the east of the state, has been ongoing since 2017.

It is along a major drug trafficking corridor, as evidenced by seizures of fentanyl, methamphetamine, cocaine and heroin. Indeed, Puebla has also seen a handful of fentanyl laboratories found within its borders.

The CJNG has taken advantage of all of these, making Puebla key to a number of its criminal economies, but ultimately the organisation faces significant local challengers. In October 2023, a video appearing to be by the CJNG declared a clean-up around the town of San Martín Texmelucan. However, authorities soon said they had arrested those responsible and claimed the video was filmed by a gang only pretending to be from the larger cartel.

There have been several real instances of copycat groups pretending to be the CJNG, as smaller gangs seek to profit or cow rivals based on the fearsome reputation of the larger cartel.

Querétaro: Moderate presence

Criminal economies in Querétaro appear quite similar to those of its neighbour, Guanajuato. Although Querétaro has no refinery, it has a pipeline network ripe for being tapped by fuel thieves. Located in the centre of Mexico, it is a logical waypoint for drugs going north. Yet, for several decades, it has enjoyed the reputation of being one of Mexico’s safest states, with levels of violence far below the national average.

An urban legend in Mexico has it that the country’s largest criminal groups, including the Sinaloa Cartel, the Gulf Cartel, and the Zetas, jointly agreed that Querétaro would be a no man’s land, a haven where cartel bosses could send their families to live quietly in peace.

There is little evidence behind this story, but Querétaro has indeed remained unusually peaceful as Mexico’s homicides soared. In October 2023, a CJNG video announced the alleged arrival of the cartel in the state. And violence did reach record levels in Querétaro in 2023, which some observers attributed to clashes between the CJNG and the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel, spilling over from Guanajuato.

Quintana Roo: Strong Presence

The CJNG is just one of several major criminal groups seeking to expand across Quintana Roo, Mexico’s Caribbean jewel which contains the tourist meccas of Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Cozumel, and Tulum. Due to the cash-friendly nature of the tourist industry, Quintana Roo had long been a money laundering hotspot but violent organized crime has been increasing rapidly there in the last decade.

In 2019, the CJNG assassinated El Buda, an experienced operative who allegedly controlled the Sinaloa Cartel’s drug trafficking interests along Mexico’s Caribbean coasts. He was killed in Quintana Roo’s capital of Chetumal, a port city which has been used to bring cocaine, weapons and migrants into Mexico.

Further north, the CJNG has made plentiful profits from the tourism industry. It has developed an extensive extortion network, shaking down hotels, resorts and other businesses connected to the massive tourism industry. It fights brutally to distribute drugs to visitors from abroad, with several killings in popular resort towns linked to local drug sales. And finally, the CJNG has brought its timeshare scam to Cancún and owns telemarketing companies that defraud plenty of victims, especially in the US and Canada.

San Luis Potosí: Strong presence

Sandwiched next to Guanajuato and Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí is a tempting target for the CJNG. Yet, it has not been able to fully control this sprawling central state which is criss-crossed by important drug trafficking routes. Additionally, thousands of migrants cross San Luis Potosí every year heading for the US border, becoming potential targets for extortion and kidnapping.

From at least 2015, the CJNG has been reported as seeking to wrest control of San Luis Potosí from groups already present there, especially the Gulf Cartel. It has not, to date, been able to do so.

Besides the Gulf Cartel, the CJNG has faced resistance from a slew of smaller groups forming in San Luis Potosí and neighbouring states. Grupo Sombra, an offshoot from the fragmenting Gulf Cartel, appears to maintain strong control of areas along San Luis Potosí’s border with Veracruz. Two other Zeta cast-offs, the Talibanes and the Alemanes, have also clashed with the CJNG in the state.

Sinaloa: Little Presence

Despite its early days as an underling and ally to the Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG has not set up a foothold in its rival’s home state. The Sinaloa Cartel has two major factions, one led by the Chapitos, the sons of Joaquín Guzmán Loera, alias “El Chapo,” and the other by El Chapo’s old business partner, Ismael Zambada García, alias "El Mayo.”

Both control significant territory and resources within Sinaloa and enjoy significant local support among the population.

While there have been sporadic reports of CJNG activity in southern Sinaloa, these do not appear to have significantly disrupted the Sinaloa Cartel’s stronghold on its turf.

Sonora: Little Presence

This northern state, covering a large portion of the Mexico-US frontier, is one of the most regular crossing points for drugs, including fentanyl, and migrants into the US. However, it is firmly in the grasp of two of CJNG's enemies.

Located between Sinaloa and Baja California, Sonora has been a stomping ground for the Sinaloa Cartel and the smaller Caborca Cartel, connected to infamous Mexican kingpin, Rafael Caro Quintero. Sonora remains one of the most violent states in Mexico.

Reports by InSight Crime blame this on internal divisions in the Sinaloa Cartel, attempts by the Chapitos to take over Caborca Cartel territory along drug trafficking routes and a huge surge in human smuggling.

The CJNG activity has been sporadically reported around the San Luis Rio Colorado border crossing into Arizona, but a major presence of the group at this important hub for drug trafficking into the US remains unlikely.

State of Mexico: Strong presence

The CJNG has lengthy connections with the State of Mexico, also known as Edomex, which almost surrounds the capital. Back in the days of the Milenio Cartel, the state was a main exit route for marijuana, heroin, meth and cocaine being moved out of Michoacán and Guerrero. It was then one of the battleground states in the CJNG’s brutal war with the Knights Templar until 2017.

Since 2017, the State of Mexico has remained one of the country’s most complex criminal states, with plenty of opportunities for drug trafficking and extortion. It is also a necessary staging point for many criminal groups wishing to operate in Mexico City. Additionally, the state has seen numerous corruption scandals, tying ruling officials and police to criminal groups.

The CJNG has had a constant presence here but has struggled to stand out. Over the years, it has battled La Familia Michoacana in the west of the state and Zeta offshoots to the east. An alliance with one of Mexico City’s main gangs, La Unión Tepito, was briefly reported in 2022 but may not have lasted.

In 2023, La Familia Michoacana appeared to be making significant advances in becoming the dominant criminal group in the state, but this may not last.

The State of Mexico may be connected to virtually every criminal economy in the country. It wraps its way around three-quarters of Mexico City, it is a hub for drug trafficking and production, contraband and human smuggling, and it has a lengthy history of politicians all too willing to work with organised crime.

Tabasco: Strong presence

Located on the southern side of the Gulf of Mexico, Tabasco is a small state and a gateway to Mexico’s offshore oil infrastructure. While Tabasco has escaped the worst of Mexico’s cartel wars, violence remains persistently high. It is an epicentre for the kidnapping of migrants who enter Mexico through Tabasco’s remote border with Guatemala. 

Its oil industry makes it a natural focal point for fuel theft, and the state is a base for piracy attacks on offshore oil facilities. There are also regular seizures of cocaine, meth and marijuana.

The CJNG is heavily involved in all of these criminal economies and fights to remove local opposition. While it has battled Zetas’ splinter groups in Tabasco in the past, the CJNG has been embroiled in a feud with a different gang, known as La Barredora. In February 2024, a CJNG video announced one of its familiar “clean-ups” in Tabasco.

Tamaulipas: Strong presence

For close to a century, the US-Mexico border in the state of Tamaulipas was guarded by the Gulf Cartel or its smuggling forebears. This automatically made the group one of Mexico’s criminal elite, as it controlled access to the US at the all-important Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa and Matamoros border crossings. In the late 1990s, the Gulf Cartel created the Zetas, a squad of hitmen made up of former Mexican commandos. This led to a brief boom period for the Gulf Cartel, followed by a slow process of fragmentation propelled by a war with the Zetas and the arrest of several top leaders. 

The state of Tamaulipas would be a warren of Gulf Cartel factions vying for control during this time. The CJNG spotted an opportunity and moved in. While the CJNG has had a presence in the state for years, it ramped up its activities there in 2023. An alleged alliance with the Metros, a Gulf Cartel faction based in Reynosa, has allowed the CJNG to push into the north of the state. US authorities in Texas have reported seeing a rapid rise in seizures of fentanyl coming from Tamaulipas, another telltale sign the CJNG may be expanding there.

However, despite being fragmented, the Gulf Cartel factions remain deeply entrenched, as does the rival Northeast Cartel. Removing this opposition and dominating Tamaulipas will be a tough task for the CJNG.

Tlaxcala: Little presence

In 2022, a map presented in a US congressional report claimed that Tlaxcala was one of only four Mexican states in which the CJNG was absent. Since then, however, the CJNG has begun to show interest in Tlaxcala, just east of Mexico City.

CJNG narco-banners have been put up, threatening businesses and senior government officials for allegedly working with organized crime. Feuds between the CJNG and fuel thieves in neighbouring Puebla also have the potential to spill over into Tlaxcala, which has seen an increase in pipeline taps in recent years.

Veracruz: Strong Presence

After the CJNG were firmly established on the Pacific Coast in 2012, they made a beeline across the country to the eastern coast. Their goal: the state of Veracruz, with a coastline stretching almost 600 kilometres along the Gulf of Mexico, and the port of the same name. Controlling that asset would give the CJNG a crucial route to the sea on both oceans, allowing it a far larger range of options for trafficking drugs to the US and for smuggling in chemical precursors. Veracruz was also a bitter battleground state in the cartel’s campaign against the Zetas, who had begun fragmenting in 2012.

In the years since, the CJNG has remained one of the strongest criminal actors in Veracruz, especially in the south of the state, which connects to other hubs for the cartel.

However, the north of the state remains one of the CJNG’s most persistent battlegrounds. It has not been able to clear out the dogged presence of smaller groups which have fragmented off from the Zetas and the Gulf Cartel. More recently, a new alliance calling itself the Cartel Mafia Veracruzana appears to have gathered several smaller outfits to compete against larger cartels.

Yucatán: Moderate presence

Yucatán has remained Mexico’s most peaceful state for years. Located on the northern edge of the Yucatán Peninsula, the state is not connected to the country’s main trafficking or smuggling routes. There have been occasional reports of CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel activity, but neither group appears to heavily invest in their presence there. However, the state of Yucatán has seen a continuous increase in money laundering schemes discovered there, either through shell companies or through its popular tourist industry.

Zacatecas: Strong Presence

Since the CJNG became fully formed in 2012, homicides in Zacatecas have tripled. And while violence has gone down slightly since a peak in 2021, the state remains fiercely contested by the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel, as well as smaller local gangs.

It is a transport nexus with highways heading to the US border, making it crucial for drug trafficking routes.

In 2019, the Sinaloa Cartel reinforced its operations in Zacatecas to control drug flow to the north and to set up fentanyl labs in the centre and south. In 2020, the CJNG moved in to contest these criminal economies, announcing its arrival with a highly coordinated campaign of narco-banners.

Killings of criminals, rivals and police officers have soared, making Zacatecas one of the focal points of Mexico’s war between the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG.

Since then, Zacatecas has remained a major hub for fentanyl production, making it all the more valuable to both sides.